USD Weakens but which Pairs to trade that will have minimal risk and maximum profit?

Is there even such a question? These seems more amateurish thoughts to be honest.

Today or maybe yesterday, the USD moved and weaken against most currencies. 

The question I then asked my classmate and myself is, which instrument or Currency Pair would have minimal risk and maximal profit, especially if it is a correlated pair or USD pair?

I do not have a clear answer to this. But my thoughts are as follows to be confirmed with Ray or more experienced Traders.

1) Which pair has been Overbought / Oversold the most? Refer to Jody's software to Calculate and provide the stats. Would that give me more chance of success?

2) Which currency pair has a weaker trend in the higher time frame? If this move is just temporary, then it could be just a correction to some support levels at the higher time frame.

3) Which Set Up would give more reward to risk and better chance of a win trade? Break our of the FTP? Did this move trigger a break out in higher time frame?

4) I looked at the 240mins / 4hrly chart and tried to determine which moves were most sustained.

Do you see anything unusual? I was trying to see which had the most retracement.

At about 955pm Singapore time, this was how it looked. I panicked a little as I write this blog because I chose to SHORT the USDCAD and as you can see, there was some retracement.

Compared to AUDUSD, the moves were less sustained? I tried to enter AUDUSD at some close levels but was not entered and inevitably feelings of regrets filled me.


5) Would I stay in the trade or close out and reshort at another opportunity? The amateur in me closed it even before I finished writing this blog HAHAHA, albeit I forgot that MT4 is a one click system.....

Chose to cancel my AUDUSD as well.

6) Another important point to remember as Ray would say is that we should not mix our time frames for trading especially if one has a full time job. Since it Friday, naturally I spent a bit more time looking at the charts.

7) Another point came to mind! It IS Friday, meaning if I do not close out, then I would carry the trade over the weekend. Should I even do that? I have not determined that in my rule yet.

8) Time Zone matters. The move sustained in Asia Time Zone did not suspend once US opens. I watched my profits went from $24 to $13 which I closed out of out FOMO. But OK, I learnt something from this. 

Base on the charts, I can conclude or at least observe that when USD weakens, it is not the same impact to all currencies. More work needs to be done in this aspect to identify the pair to trade when a major currency moves against the others.



I hope to find some good advice or answers to these thoughts and questions!

It is Fridayyyyy!




Comments

  1. Referring to USDJPY, the opposite had happened and USDJPY slided following Abe's resignation. So that was something that obviously stood and I had not noticed it.

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